000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232156 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN JUN 23 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E IS NEAR 12.0N 103.7W 1005 MB AT 2100 UTC JUN 23. MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 150 NM SE QUADRANT AND 180 NM SW QUADRANT. THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND A HURRICANE BY TUE MORNING AS IT MOVES IN A GENERAL NW MOTION. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM NHC UNDER THE HEADER WTPZ23/TCPEP3. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF 10N THROUGH THE GULF OF FONSECA. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE PEAKED AT 25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING AS NOTED IN A 0330 UTC ASCAT PASS. AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST THROUGH TONIGHT...IT WILL INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E...EVENTUALLY LOSING DEFINITION. SEAS LIKELY PEAKED TO 8 FT AND ARE STARTING TO SUBSIDE WITH THE WINDS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 08N78W TO 09N97W THEN RESUMES FROM 13N110W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 13N114W TO 09N128W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 09N128W TO 08N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 78W AND 82W...AND BETWEEN 86W AND 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 95W. ...DISCUSSION... A NEARLY STATIONARY 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE IS NEAR 14N113W. CONVECTION HAS WANED NEAR THIS LOW...WITH ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT. THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE- E FURTHER E WILL CAPTURE THE REMNANTS INTO ITS CIRCULATION. A SURFACE RIDGE LIES OVER N WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH 30N140 AND 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 31N147W TO THE 1025 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH NW OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NEAR 34N172W. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IS SHIFTS S OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER W WATERS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THIS RIDGE HAS SHRUNK OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND SEAS TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL INDUCED BY THE TRADES IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FRESH NW WINDS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST CONTINUE TO SEND NW SWELL INTO WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 119W AND 125W...BUT THE WIND AND SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH HERE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WELL. MIXED S SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT HAS CROSSED THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 110W AND 135W...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NE REACHING PAST 10N BETWEEN 100W-125W TONIGHT. THIS SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL MERGE WITH MIXED SWELL DEVELOPING NEAR TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E. THE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BETWEEN 97W-105W LATE MON...THEN BE REINFORCED BY NEW S SWELL E OF THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH THE COMBINED SWELL MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON TUE NIGHT...AND PROPAGATING N ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA REACHING ALONG 30N ON WED NIGHT. $$ SCHAUER/CHRISTENSEN