000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231547 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN JUN 23 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1415 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E IS NEAR 11.8N 103.8W 1005 MB AT 1500 UTC JUN 23 MOVING IS STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 120 NM SE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 180 NM AND 450 NM N QUADRANT...270 NM SE QUADRANT...AND 410 NM SW QUADRANT. THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND A HURRICANE BY TUE MORNING AS IT MOVES IN A GENERAL NW MOTION. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM NHC UNDER THE HEADER WTPZ23/TCPEP3. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 86W N OF 10N. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS FOUND JUST S OF THE WAVE AND MONSOON TROUGH FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W. THE 0328 UTC ASCAT PASS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO SHOWED WINDS TO 25 KT AS THE WAVE APPROACHED. THESE WINDS LIKELY PEAKED IN THE MORNING HOURS AND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TODAY. SEAS ARE BELIEVED TO BE AROUND 8 FT AND WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TODAY AS WELL. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE IDENTITY IN THE MONSOON FLOW TONIGHT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N84W TO 10N98W THEN RESUMES FROM 14N108W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 14N115W TO 11N126W. ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 11N126W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 92W AND FROM 90 NM TO 330 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 96W AS WELL AS WITHIN 30 NM N AND 120 NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 136W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIES S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER EASTERN WATERS FROM 03N TO 08N E OF 81W TO COAST OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. ...DISCUSSION... A NEARLY STATIONARY 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE IS NEAR 14N 115W. CONVECTION HAS WANED NEAR THIS LOW...WITH ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 0 NM SE QUADRANT. THIS LOW IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IT IS EXPECTED THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FURTHER E WILL CAPTURE THIS LOW INTO ITS CIRCULATION. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH TONIGHT...AND THEN LOSE ITS IDENTITY SOMETIME MON. A SURFACE RIDGE LIES OVER N WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH 30N140 AND 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 31N147W TO THE 1026 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH NW OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NEAR 34N172W. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IS SHIFTS S OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER W WATERS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THIS RIDGE HAS SHRUNK OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND SEAS TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL INDUCED BY THE TRADES IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FRESH NW WINDS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST CONTINUE TO SEND NW SWELL INTO WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 119W AND 125W...BUT THE WIND AND SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH HERE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WELL. MIXED S SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT HAS CROSSED THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 115W-135W...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NE REACHING ALONG 10N BETWEEN 100W-125W TONIGHT. BY THEN...THIS SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL MERGE WITH MIXED SWELL DEVELOPING NEAR TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E. THE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 97W-105W LATE MON...THEN BE REINFORCED BY NEW S SWELL E OF THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH THE COMBINED SWELL MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON TUE NIGHT...AND PROPAGATING N ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA REACHING ALONG 30N ON WED NIGHT. $$ SCHAUER