000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220238
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC SAT JUN 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE 
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF LOW PRES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH 
BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. THERE ARE TWO LOW PRES CENTERS ANALYZED 
CURRENTLY ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...ONE AT 12N101W AND ANOTHER 
AT 14N115W. BOTH OF THESE LOW PRES AREAS PRESENTED WELL ON 
EALIER ASCAT PASSES. THE WESTERNMOST LOW PRES DEVELOPED IN PART 
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE THAT HAS SINCE BECOME A SHARPLY 
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 19N BETWEEN 105W AND 
120W. THE EASTERNMOST LOW PRES IS ATTRIBUTED TO THE INTERACTION 
OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON 
TROUGH...AS WELL AS RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF  
CONVECTION ARE PULSING AROUND EACH LOW PRES AREA...BUT MORE 
SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS FAVORING THE EASTERNMOST 
LOW. 

MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CONTINUED 
DEVELOPMENT OF EASTERNMOST LOW PRES AREA. THE CANADIAN HAS 
JOINED THE GFS INDICATING THAT BOTH LOW PRES AREAS WILL CONTINUE 
TO DEVELOP...WHEREAS ALL OTHER OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS 
INDICATE THE EASTERNMOST DEVELOPING AT THE EXPENSE OF THE WESTERN 
LOW THROUGH MON. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MORE BALANCED 
CONSENSUS APPROACH AND GRADUALLY MERGES THE WESTERNMOST LOW INTO 
THE EASTERN LOW MON INTO TUE. THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE 
MONITORED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AND THERE IS A 
HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
12N101W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 14N115W TO 09N125W. THE ITCZ 
AXIS CONTINUES FROM 09N125W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE  
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 12N101W.

...DISCUSSION... 

ELSEWHERE E OF 130W...MODERATE TO FRESH SW FLOW CONTINUES CROSS 
THE EQUATOR AND CONVERGE INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH. ALTIMETER 
PASSES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOWED SEAS TO BE GENERALLY 
SIX TO SEVEN FEET. GLOBAL WAVE GUIDANCE INDICATES AN AREA OF SW 
SWELL WITH SEAS TO 8 FT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE EQUATOR 
SUN...REACHING AS FAR N AS 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 130W BY MIDDAY 
MON...LIKELY MIXING WITH FRESH SWELL GENERATED BY THE DEVELOPING 
LOW PRES IN THE AREA BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. 

FARTHER NORTH...STATIONARY 1029 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 
32N140W. FRESH NW TO N WINDS PERSIST N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 
122W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH 
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH 
DIGGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC. THE FRESH WINDS AND SEAS 
TO 8 FT WILL CROSS S OF 30N IN THE SAME AREA SUN AS THE RIDGE 
BUILDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE EXITING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. 
 
 
$$ 
CHRISTENSEN