000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210952 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI JUN 21 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 09N FROM COLOMBIA TO ACROSS NW PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 09N83W...CONTINUING W TO 11N94W TO 10N103W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N116.5W...THEN SW TO 08N126W TO 09N140W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N90W TO 12N95W...WITHIN 90 NM OF 10N103W...WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 32N109W TO 10N126W...AND WITHIN 90 NM OF 08N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N87W TO 14N93W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW FROM OVER THE MEXICAN BORDER AT 22N105W TO 15N125W INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 07N127W. THIS UPPER TROUGH SEPARATES THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH TWO LARGE UPPER CYCLONES. AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE N OF THE TROUGH IS CENTERED AT 23N117W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING E TO A SHARP CREST OVER MEXICO AT 25N106W...AND AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS W TO A CREST AT 22N129W. UPPER MOISTURE...THAT ORIGINATED FROM ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 150W...IS ADVECTED NE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 122W- 140W...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY N OF 18N W OF 105W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED S OF THE TROUGH NEAR 11N105W... WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 08N98W. AN RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS W TO A CREST AT 12N125W...AND IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 100W-125W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE FANS OUT WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N101W TO 12N112W TO 08N126W. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ALSO ADVECTED SE ALONG THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE MERGING WITH ADDITIONAL DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH CONVECTION NEAR 10N93W. THE RESULT IS DENSE UPPER MOISTURE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF 17N E OF 95W. REMNANTS OF THE FORMER ATLANTIC CYCLONE BARRY ARE DISSIPATING OVER MEXICO NEAR 19.5N98W. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT SPAWNED BARRY IS NOW ANALYZED AS A TROUGH FROM 15N96W TO 12N99W. MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH NEAR 12N103W ON SAT. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE POSITION AND INTENSITY...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO TRACK WESTWARD AND SLOWLY DEEPEN. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N114W. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N138W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 18N113W. E OF THE RIDGE THE NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20 KT ARE STILL OCCURRING AS FAR S AS 27N BETWEEN 118W-125W WITH SEAS 7-9 FT IN N SWELL. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT 15-20 KT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NE TRADES AREA ARE AT 15-20 KT SW OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 120W WITH SEAS 6-9 FT IN NE SWELL. $$ NELSON