000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210339
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC FRI JUN 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N83W TO 1006 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N114W
TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
120 NM OF 09.5N91W AND 10N102W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
10N108W TO 11N115W TO 09N123W...AND WITHIN 90 NM OF 08N132W.

...DISCUSSION...

REMNANTS OF T.D. BARRY CENTERED OVER S CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 19.6N  
98.2W. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT HELPED SPAWN BARRY IS NOW ANALYZED
AS A TROUGH FROM 15N96W TO 12N99W. THERE IS AGREEMENT AMONG 
THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS THAT A LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THIS TROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS 
DIFFER ON POSITION AND INTENSITY THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR 
THE LOW TO TRACK NW STAYING WELL SOUTH OF BAJA...AND PASSING 
110W EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A 1006 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 11N114W. THE GFS MODEL IS THE 
OUTLIER SHOWING CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THIS LOW. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS ECMWF/UKMET BLEND INDICATING A GRADUAL WEAKENING.

ELSEWHERE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 
32N140W THROUGH 23N115W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED OVER 
MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 110W...SUPPORTING AREAS OF CONVECTION 
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. NORTHERLY SWELLS TO 9 FT ARE N OF 26N 
BETWEEN 118W AND 125W. THE SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 
LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY SAT.

$$ 
CHRISTENSEN/NELSON