000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202140
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC THU JUN 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
MONSOON TROUGH 10N85W 11N93W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N112W TO 
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

T.D. BARRY IS NOW CENTERED OVER S CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 19.6N  
97.7W. WELL SOUTH OF BARRY ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...A CLUSTER 
OF CONVECTION IS NOTED PROPAGATING EAST TO WEST ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH. OSCAT FROM 18 UTC DATA SHOW LOW AMPLITUDE 
TROUGHING IN THE AREA NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 95W 
AND 98W. THIS COULD BE AN ARTIFACT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT 
HELPED SPAWN BARRY...A THEORY SUPPORTED BY ITS POSITION DUE 
SOUTH OF THE DIMINISHING CYCLONE. THE AREA ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS BROAD 
AGREEMENT AMONG OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOWING A LOW 
FORMING IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODELS DIFFER 
ON THE EXACT POSITION AND INTENSITY HOWEVER OVER THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A LOW TO DEVELOP 
AND TRACK NW STAYING WELL SOUTH OF BAJA...AND PASSING 110W EARLY 
NEXT WEEK.

A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 11N112W. THIS FEATURE HAD 
BEEN SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER CYCLONE TO ITS NORTHWEST...BUT THIS 
APPEARS TO HAVE TRANSFORMED INTO A SHARPLY ELONGATED TROUGH 
EXTENDING E TO W ALONG 17N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W. THE GFS IS THE 
OUTLIER SHOWING CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THIS LOW. THROUGH 
SAT...GIVEN THE DECREASING SUPPORT ALOFT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 
FOLLOWS ECMWF/UKMET BLEND WITH REGARD TO THIS LOW...INDICATING A 
GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH FRI. LOOKING AHEAD...THE GFS ACTUALLY 
KEEPS THIS LOW INTACT ROUGHLY IN THE SAME AREA THROUGH EARLY 
NEXT WEEK...EVEN AS THE LOW TO THE EAST DEVELOPS AND TRACKS NW. 
AGAIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF.

ELSEWHERE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 
32N140W THROUGH 23N115W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED OVER 
MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 110W...SUPPORTING AREAS OF CONVECTION 
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. NORTHERLY SWELLS TO 9 FT ARE N OF 26N 
BETWEEN 118W AND 125W. THE SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 
LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY SAT.

$$ 
CHRISTENSEN