000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201520
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC THU JUN 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
MONSOON TROUGH 10N85W TO 1006 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N111W TO 
9N130W. ITCZ 9N130W TO 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS FROM 92W-100W AND WITHIN 90 
NM S AND 60 NM N OF AXIS FROM 107W-127W.

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 22N123W WITH RIDGE 
EXTENDING FROM THE ANTICYCLONE NW TO 32N135W. EXCEPT FOR SOME 
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE N OF 27N W OF 130W MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS IS N OF 
15N W OF 105W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 
16N118W. UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN S OF THE CYCLONE IS 
HELPING TO INDUCE THE STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON FROM 
7N-10N BETWEEN 107W-127W. 

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. ALONG THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THE GRADIENT IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 
ELY 20 KT WINDS FROM 15N-20N W OF 130W...WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN NE 
SWELL. NLY SWELLS TO 9 FT ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W. 
THE SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY 
SAT.

$$ 
DGS