000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191542
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC WED JUN 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
MONSOON TROUGH 10N85W TO 10N98W TO 08N90W TO 1007 MB LOW PRES 
NEAR 10N108W TO 11N125W. ITCZ 10N125W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED 
STRONG WITHIN 70 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 88W TO 94W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS FROM 98W TO 110W.

...DISCUSSION... 
MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ACROSS THE 
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 25N. TO THE S OF THESE WINDS A BROAD 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRULATION CENTERED NEAR 22N127W AND ANOTHER 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 16N137W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS 
MOST OF THE AREA. RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONES NEWD TO 
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS IS 
N OF 15N W OF 110W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
NEAR 14N111W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 15N100W WITH ANOTHER 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER GUATEMALA. UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW 
PATTERN BETWEEN THE CYCLONE AND THE ANTICYOLE IS HELPING TO 
INDUCE THE STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON FROM 7N-10N 
BETWEEN 88W-94W. 

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. ALONG THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THE GRADIENT IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 
ELY 20 KT WINDS FROM 9N-16N W OF 130W...WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN NE 
SWELL. NLY SWELLS ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 117W AND 123W ARE 
FORECAST TO BUILD 8-10 FT N OF 25N BETWEEN 116W-125W THU.

$$ 
DGS