000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181005
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC TUE JUN 18 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 11N97W TO 1009 MB LOW 
PRES AT 11N104W TO 11N120W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N120W TO 
10N131W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
60 NM S OF AXIS E OF 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS 
FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 103W AND 108W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                
ALOFT...SW TO W FLOW IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE NORTH WATERS MAINLY N 
OF 22N AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM A LARGE 
CYCLONE VORTEX WELL N OF THE AREA SWWD TO THE CENTRAL TROPICAL 
PACIFIC REGION. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ACROSS 
THIS PORTION OF THE AREA LEADING TO RATHER DRY AND STABLE 
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS  
IDENTIFIED AT 17N124W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD TO NEAR 
10N109W. A WEAK UPPER LOW IS SEEN NEAR 13N99W. A TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM THE LOW NNE TO ACROSS SE MEXICO AND SW PORTION OF THE BAY 
OF CAMPECHE. A SLIGHTLY UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN THE 
LOW AND THE RIDGE IS HELPING TO INITIATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE MONSOON LOW CENTER 
AT 11N104W. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS NEWD FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED 
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NRN AND NERN MEXICO 
TO THE FAR WRN GULF OF MEXICO. ELY FLOW ALOFT ON THE SW 
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS 
ADVECTING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN 
PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 05N AND E OF ABOUT 90W. 

A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 17N124W 
AND BROAD UPPER LOW PRES TO TS SOUTH IS HELPING TO SET OFF SMALL 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 121W AND 
132W. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES ANALYZED NW OF THE 
DISCUSSIONA AT 35N145W EXTENDS A RIDGE SEWD THROUGH 32N136W AND 
TO NEAR 20N118W. THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT 
SHIFTS SEWD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. THE PRES GRADIENT TO ITS E 
IN COMBIANTION WITH LOWER PRES OVER THE WRN U.S. W COAST WILL 
SUPPORT STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF SRN 
CALIFORNIA. NW TO N SWELLS GENERATED BY THESE WINDS ARE 
FILTERING S INTO THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA TO N OF 28N E OF 
122W WHERE NW-N WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS OF 8-10 FT ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THU.

AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CIRCULATION 
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO THAT FORMED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS 
MON MORNING. IN ADDITION...SALINA CRUZ IN THE STATE OF OAXACA 
REPORTED N WINDS UP TO 24 KT MON AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...THAT MOVES THE CENTER OF TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION TWO OVER BELIZE AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA TONIGHT AND 
EARLY TUESDAY...OVER EASTERN MEXICO LATER ON TUESDAY AND ACROSS 
THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...DECIDE TO KEEP 
THE NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH 
48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT OF THE 
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF CURRENT T.D. TWO.

ADDITIONAL PULSES OF CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS ARE PROPAGATING 
THROUGH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS...RAISING SEAS TO 8 FT S OF 03N 
BETWEEN 116W AND 127W. THESE SWELLS ARE FORECAST BY WAVEWATCH 
GUIDANCES TO REACH THE COASTLINES OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO 
THROUGH WED AS THEY WILL BE REINFORCED BY YET ANOTHER BATCH OF 
LONG PERIOD SW SWELLS WITH PERIODS OF 18-20 SEC. THESE SWELLS 
COULD LEAD TO ROUGH SURF NEAR AND ALONG THE ABOVE COASTLINES. 

$$ 
GR