000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172147
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC MON JUN 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N92W TO 1009 MB LOW 
11N103W TO 12N114W. ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 12N114 TO 08N130W 
TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 103W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 
12N TO 14N BETWEEN 110W AND 117W...AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 
122W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
ALOFT...SW TO W FLOW IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE NORTH WATERS MAINLY N 
OF 22N AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM A LARGE 
CYCLONE VORTEX WELL N OF THE AREA SWWD TO THE CENTRAL TROPICAL 
PACIFIC REGION. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ACROSS 
THIS PORTION OF THE AREA LEADING TO RATHER DRY AND STABLE 
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. THE ANTICYCLONE THAT WAS LOCATED 
YESTERDAY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS MIGRATED 
SW AND NOW IS CENTERED NEAR 18N119W WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE 
EXTENDING SEWD TO NEAR 07N105W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION 
NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. ANOTHER 
RIDGE EXTENDS NEWD FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS 
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 11N98W WITH A 
TROUGH EXTENDING NWD ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO THE CENTRAL 
GULF OF MEXICO. ELY FLOW ALOFT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N82W IS ADVECTING MID 
TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE 
AREA N OF 05N AND E OF ABOUT 90W. 

A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 18N119W 
AND AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH IS HELPING TO INDUCE 
THE CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION THAT COVERS
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 31N134W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 20N115W. THE HIGH 
PRES IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS 
AND BE REPLACED BY STRONGER HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS EWD JUST TO 
THE N OF THE FORECAST REGION THROUGH WED. AS THIS HIGH PRES 
BUILDS EWD...THE RESULTING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND 
GENERALLY LOWER PRES OVER THE WRN U.S. W COAST WILL SUPPORT 
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. NW TO N 
SWELLS GENERATED BY THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INVADE THE NE 
WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND LAST INTO WED. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR 
INCREASING WINDS TO 20-25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS OF UP TO 10 FT 
BY TUE NIGHT OVER THE AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 116W AND 123W. 

THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW THAT NE TRADES OF 20-25 
KT ARE PRESENT S OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE FROM 10N TO 18N W 
OF 125W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE TO THESE MARINE 
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. 

AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CIRCULATION 
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO THAT FORMED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS 
THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...SALINA CRUZ IN THE STATE OF OAXACA 
HAS ALSO CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WIND SPEEDS REPORTING 
WINDS OF 22-24 KT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. BASED ON THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...THAT MOVES THE CENTER OF TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION TWO OVER BELIZE AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA TONIGHT AND 
EARLY TUESDAY...OVER EASTERN MEXICO LATER ON TUESDAY AND ACROSS 
THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...DECIDE TO KEEP 
THE NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH 
48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDANT OF THE 
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF CURRENT T.D. TWO.

ADDITIONAL PULSES OF CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS ARE PROPAGATING 
THROUGH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS. THESE SWELLS ARE FORECAST BY 
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCES TO REACH THE COASTLINES OF CENTRAL AMERICA 
AND MEXICO THROUGH WED AS THEY WILL BE REINFORCED BY YET ANOTHER 
BATCH OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELLS WITH PERIODS OF 18-20 SEC. THESE 
SWELLS COULD LEAD TO ROUGH SURF NEAR AND ALONG THE ABOVE 
COASTLINES. 

$$ 
GR