000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171516
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC MON JUN 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
MONSOON TROUGH 9N84W 7N90W TO 1009 MB LOW 11N102W TO 10N107W. 
ITCZ 10N107W TO 11N115W TO 7N130W TO 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS FROM 118W-131W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF 20N W OF 130W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS THE 
AREA N OF 20N W OF 110W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
IS CENTERED NEAR 18N119W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING NE INTO NORTHERN 
MEXICO AND ANOTHER RIDGE SW OF THE ANTICYCLONE TO 18N130W. A 
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 12N97W WITH 
A TOUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO. 

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. ALONG THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THE GRADIENT IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 
ELY 20 KT WINDS FROM 10N-18N W OF 123W...WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN NE 
SWELL. NLY SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA N OF 28N 
BETWEEN 118W AND 122W TUE THEN BUILD 8-10 FT N OF 26N BETWEEN 
116W-123W WED. SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 
13N122W TO 6N129W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE ITCZ SECTION.

$$ 
DGS