000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170954 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON JUN 17 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO O8N91W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N101W TO 10N108W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N108W TO 12N117W TO 09N130W...THEN RESUMES AT 07N137W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 123W-128W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W-122W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...SW FLOW IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA MAINLY N OF 19N W OF 115W OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM A LARGE CYCLONE VORTEX WELL N OF THE AREA SWWD TO THE CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC REGION WELL W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE AREA LEADING TO RATHER DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL FILAMENTS OF SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE SEEN STREAKING NEWD ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE ANTICYCLONE PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER W/CENTRAL MEXICO HAS MIGRATED WWD AND NOW IS CENTERED JUST SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 22N112W WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD TO NEAR 10N100W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WAS EARLIER SUSTAINING CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IN THAT VICINITY...BUT HAVE DISSIPATED JUST A FEW HRS AGO. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS NEWD FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS NE MEXICO INTO TEXAS AND OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW IS NEAR 13N91W WITH A TROUGH TO 20N92W. ELY FLOW ALOFT ON THE SW SIDE OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N76W IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS WWD INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 06N AND E OF ABOUT 90W. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE AREA HAS MOISTENED UP QUITE A BIT DURING THE PAST 24-48 HRS...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM VERY DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVING NW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEAS IS ALSO ADVECTED WWD INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG 131W FROM 07N TO 13N. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG A POSITION FROM 12N132W TO NEAR 07N136W. THE TROUGH BISECTS THE ITCZ...AND COINCIDES WITH A SWATH OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS OBSERVED IN THE COMPOSITE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. LIMITED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE GFS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE GUIDANCE PROGS THIS TROUGH TO STEADILY TRACK WWD OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS BY WHICH TIME IT SHOULD BE VERY NEAR 140W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY 1025 MB HIGH PRES IS ANALYZED AT 31.5N135W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM IT SEWD TO NEAR 21N117W. THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AND BE REPLACED BY STRONGER HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS EWD JUST TO THE N OF THE DISCUSSION THROUGH WED. AS THIS HIGH PRES BUILDS EWD...THE RESULTING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND GENERALLY LOWER PRES OVER THE WRN U.S. W COAST WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. NW TO N SWELLS GENERATED BY THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INVADE THE NE WATERS TONIGHT AND LAST INTO WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT OVER THE NE PORTION AREA DEFINED TO THE N OF 27N AND BETWEEN 117W- 122W. A PARTIAL SWATH OF THE 0538 UTC ASCAT PASS SUGGESTED THAT NE TRADES OF 20-25 KT ARE PRESENT S OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE FROM 08N TO 19N W OF 134W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE TO THESE TRADE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS AS THE DESCRIBED RIDGING IN COMBINATION WITH RELATIVELY LOWER PRES ALONG THE TROPICS MAINTAIN THE CULPRIT PRES GRADIENT FOR THESE WINDS. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS ARE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS. THESE SWELLS ARE FORECAST BY WAVEWATCH GUIDANCES TO REACH THE COASTLINES OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO THROUGH WED AS THEY WILL BE REINFORCED BY YET ANOTHER BATCH OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELLS WITH PERIODS OF 17-20 SEC. THESE SWELLS COULD LEAD TO ROUGH SURF NEAR AND ALONG THE ABOVE COASTLINES. $$ AGUIRRE