000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170245 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON JUN 17 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO O8N90W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N101W TO 10N107W. ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 10N107W TO 11N118W TO 08N128W TO 09N132W THEN RESUMES AT 08N136W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 107W AND 119W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 121W AND 132W...AND FROM 07N TO 08N W OF 137W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...SW FLOW IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA MAINLY N OF 20N W OF 115W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH LOCATED W OF THE FORECAST REGION. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THESE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW CORNER WHERE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE ANTICYCLONE PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER WEST/CENTRAL MEXICO HAS MOVED WWD AND NOW IS CENTERED JUST SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 22N112W WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 10N100W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THE CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 110W AND 122W. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS NE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS NE MEXICO INTO TEXAS AND OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW IS NEAR 13N91W WITH A TROUGH TO 20N92W. NE TO E WINDS ALOFT...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N76W...DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA. ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE TROPICS. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS NEAR 130W FROM 06N TO 13N WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 12N131W TO 07N136W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND COINCIDES WITH A SWATH OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS OBSERVED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. A 1025 MB HIGH PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 31N135W WITH A RIDGING EXTENDING SEWD TO NEAR 20N114W. THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE WWD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN REDEVELOP TO THE NW OF THE AREA AS A STRONG HIGH CENTER INTO MID-WEEK. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND E FROM IT. ONCE AGAIN...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND GENERALLY LOWER PRES OVER THE U.S. W COAST WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. NW TO N SWELLS GENERATED BY THESE WINDS WILL REACH THE NE WATERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT THERE. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT N OF 27N BETWEEN 117W AND 122W BY TUE NIGHT. NE TRADES OF 20-25 KT ARE NOTED S OF THE RIDGE PER THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 130W...AND FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES COVERING THE AREA FROM 10N TO 19N W OF 128W THROUGH 24 HRS...AND FROM FROM 09N TO 19N W OF 135W IN 48 HRS WITH BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10 FT. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS ARE INVADING THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS...AND WILL REACH THE COASTLINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO MON WITH ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS. A NEW SW SWELL TRAIN WITH WAVE PERIODS BETWEEN 19 TO 20 SECONDS WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR ON MON AND WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS ON TUE. $$ GR