000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162119
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC SUN JUN 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
10N100W TO 09N104W. ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 09N104W TO 11N113W 
TO 07N126W TO 09N132W THEN RESUMES AT 07N137W TO BEYOND 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W 
AND 105W...WITHIN 50 NM N OF LINE FROM 13N105W TO 14N113W...FROM 
10N TO 14N BETWEEN 117W AND 122W...FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 120W 
AND 129W...FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 130W AND 133W AND FROM 05N TO 
08N W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
ALOFT...SW FLOW IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA MAINLY N 
OF 20N W OF 115W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH LOCATED 
W OF THE FORECAST REGION. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED 
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THESE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WITH THE 
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW CORNER WHERE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE ANTICYCLONE 
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER WEST/CENTRAL MEXICO IS NOW CENTERED JUST 
S OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 22N111W WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 09N102W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THE 
CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 100W AND 122W. 
ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS NE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE  
ACROSS NE MEXICO INTO TEXAS AND OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 
AN UPPER LOW IS OVER SE GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR. NE TO E WINDS 
ALOFT...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE OVER 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA  
TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
COVERS ROUGHLY THE AREA FROM 05N TO 17N E OF 120W. 

AN INVERTED TROUGH IS NEAR 130W FROM 06N TO 12N WITH AN 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 12N130W TO 07N135W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ON EITHER 
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND COVERS FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 130W 
AND 133W. THIS TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND COINCIDES 
WITH A SWATH OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS OBSERVED IN THE TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. 

A 1025 MB HIGH PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 31N135W WITH A RIDGING 
EXTENDING SEWD TO NEAR 20N114W. THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO 
MOVE WWD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN REDEVELOP TO THE NW OF 
THE AREA AS A STRONG HIGH CENTER INTO MID-WEEK. A RIDGE WILL 
EXTEND E FROM IT...AND INTENSIFY THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE 
WATERS W OF CALIFORNIA. EXPECT SWELLS FROM THAT AREA TO BEGIN TO 
SPREAD S INTO THE NE CORNER OF THE AREA BY MON NIGHT WITH SEAS 
BUILDING AGAIN TO 8 FT THERE. NE TRADES OF 20-25 KT ARE NOTED S 
OF THE RIDGE FROM RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 
130W...AND FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. THIS WEATHER 
PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADES COVERING THE AREA FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 125W THROUGH 24 
HRS...AND FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 130W IN 48 HRS WITH BUILDING SEAS 
TO 10 FT.

LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS...WITH LEADING EDGE 
PERIOD OF 16-17 SECONDS DOMINATE MOST OF THE WATERS E OF 118W 
AND THESE SWELLS ARE MERGING WITH THE SUBSIDING NW SWELLS 
AFFECTING THE NE WATERS. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF SW SWELLS ARE 
INVADING THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS...AND WILL REACH THE COASTLINE 
OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO MON WITH ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS. A 
NEW SW SWELL TRAIN WITH WAVE PERIODS BETWEEN 19 TO 20 SECONDS 
WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR ON MON AND WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE 
SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS ON TUE. 

$$ 
GR