000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161542
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC SUN JUN 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
MONSOON TROUGH 10N86W TO 1010 MB LOW 11N11W TO 8N117W. ITCZ 
8N117W TO 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
180 NM S OF AXIS FROM 93W TO 100W AND WITHIN 80 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF AXIS FROM 118W TO 121W AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 121W 
TO 126W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 160 NM N 
OF AXIS FROM 128W TO 132W AND WITHIN 70 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
FROM 134W TO 136W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 21N140W TO 10N130W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS 
ACROSS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 105W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED ALONG SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
NEAR 249N111W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND 
ANOTHER RIDGE SW OF THE ANTICYCLONE TO 18N130W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 14N91W. 
DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 93W-103W.

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. ALONG THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THE GRADIENT IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 
ELY 20 KT WINDS FROM 11N-18N W OF 130W...WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN NE 
SWELL. NLY SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA N OF 28N 
BETWEEN 119W AND 122W TUE.

$$ 
DGS