000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160247 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN JUN 16 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IS ANALYZED FROM 16N97W TO A WEAK 1009 MB LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N98W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE LOW PRES FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 98W AND 100W. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD REACHING NEAR 100W BY SUN. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N98W TO 10N110W TO 08N117W. ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 08N117W TO 06N122W TO 09N126W THEN RESUMES AT 08N131W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 98W AND 113W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...W TO SW FLOW IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY N OF 20N W OF 110W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS IS NOTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THESE UPPER LEVEL WINDS. OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE AREA...AN ANTICYCLONE DRIFTING W IS LOCATED OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N104W WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 09N92W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS HELPING TO INDUCE THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BETWEEN 98W AND 113W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO JUST UNDERNEATH THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SAME ANTICYCLONE TO THE N TOWARDS TEXAS. A CUT-OFF LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH ITS BASE NEAR THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS. AN E TO W RIDGE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS ROUGHLY THE AREA N OF 05N E OF 115W. A NEW SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 11N125W TO 07N131W. THIS TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND COINCIDES WITH A BAND OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS OBSERVED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 124W AND 126W. FARTHER WEST...ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTENED AIR IS OBSERVED IN THE TPW PRODUCT NEAR 136W...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN MOVING WWD DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH IS NOT LONGER DISCERNIBLE ON SCATTEROMETER DATA THAT SHOW WINDS FROM THE SAME DIRECTION OVER THE AREA. A 1024 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 32N135W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 20N110W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND GENERALLY LOWER PRES OVER THE U.S. W COAST HAS RELAXED. AS A RESULT...WINDS HAS DIMINISHED N OF AREA AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE NE WATERS. THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UNDER THIS WEATHER PATTERN...EXPECT INCREASING TRADE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS SUN AND MON...PARTICULARLY FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 130W. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS OF 8-10 FT W OF 125W BY MON. LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS...WITH LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 16-17 SECONDS DOMINATE MOST OF THE WATERS E OF 118W AND THESE SWELLS ARE MERGING WITH THE SUBSIDING NW SWELLS AFFECTING THE NE WATERS. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF SW SWELLS WILL INVADE THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT AND SUN...REACHING THE COASTLINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO BY MON. $$ GR