000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151503
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC SAT JUN 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                             
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IS ANALYZED 
ALONG 94W FROM 16N-11N MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION WITH THE WAVE IS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 93W-96W
AND FROM 12N-13N BETWEEN 92W-96W.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
MONSOON TROUGH 10N86W TO 09N95W TO 10N110W TO 08N118W. ITCZ 08N118W
TO 08140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N-10N
BETWEEN 90W-110W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA IS N OF 25N W OF 123W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR
AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF
105W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED ALONG THE
W COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 19N104W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 90W-110W.

NLY SWELLS TO 8 FT N OF 27N BETWEEN 122W-128W WILL SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THE GRADIENT IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ELY 20 KT WINDS FROM 11N-16N W OF 130W...WITH SEAS TO 8 FT.

$$ 
DGS