000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142119 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI JUN 14 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG WESTERN GUATEMALA AND THE EPAC FROM 17N91W TO 10N92W. THE PORTION OF THE WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS EMBEDDED IN HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 13N. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO NEAR 94W/95W TONIGHT... AND TO NEAR 98W IN A RATHER WEAKENED STATE BY SAT EVENING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N98W TO 07N115W. ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 07N115W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 09N125W TO 08N140W. CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 08N E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND N OF 06N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 92W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 119W AND 121W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...W TO SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS DOMINATE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA N OF 20N...INCLUDING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NW MEXICO...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AN ANTICYCLONE REMAINS CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 19N102W WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO TO NEAR 18N90W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ON THE SE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTION NEAR THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SAME ANTICYCLONE TO THE N TOWARDS TEXAS. TO THE EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS ITS BASE NEAR THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS. ANOTHER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AND THE PACIFIC REGIONAL WATERS. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRES REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS NEAR 09N125W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRES WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK WHILE IT DRIFTS WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FARTHER WEST...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED N OF THE ITCZ ALONG 131W FROM 09N TO 14N. SOME INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES AND THE TROUGH COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. NE WINDS OF 20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE SEEN MAINLY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE WWD WITH THE ASSOCIATED MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. HIGH PRES LOCATED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N110W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND GENERALLY LOWER PRES OVER THE U.S. WESTERN COAST IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CALIFORNIA. NW TO N SWELLS OF 8 TO 10 FT RELATED TO THESE WINDS AND CONFIRMED BY AN ALTIMETER PASS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTH WATERS MAINLY N OF 26N BETWEEN 119W AND 129W. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 8 FT OR LESS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES. LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS...WITH LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 18-19 SECONDS HAVE REACHED MOST OF THE COASTLINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO BRINGING ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS TO THOSE COASTS. $$ GR