000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141538
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC FRI JUN 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                             
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM NW HONDURAS...ACROSS CENTRAL EL SALVADOR TO 
13N89W TO 09N90W. THE PORTION OF THE WAVE OVER THE E PACIFIC IS 
EMBEDDED IN HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER. SMALL CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS 
SOUTH OF 13N. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO NEAR 100W IN 48 
HOURS. CONVECTION MAY INCREASE WITHIN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT BY 
SUNDAY BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 10N98W TO 
07N116W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N116W TO 09N122W THEN 
RESUMES WEST OF A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 09N125W AND CONTINUES ALONG 
07N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 87W 
AND 92W AND WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W 
AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 123W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES CENTERED OVER CENTRAL 
MEXICO NEAR 18N102W WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SE FROM 
SE MEXICO TO NICARAGUA. TO THE EAST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
ON THE GULF OF MEXICO IS CAUSING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NEAR 
CHIVELA PASS IN MEXICO. THIS IS MAINTAINING ACTIVE CONVECTION IN 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND WITHIN 200 NM SW OF THE COAST OF 
GUATEMALA OR WEST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. 

A WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS NEAR 
09N123W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK WHILE IT DRIFTS 
WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM A 
LOW NEAR 03S125W AND RIDGING FROM THE HIGH OVER MEXICO EXTENDING 
SW IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NW OF THE SURFACE 
LOW FROM 09N-14N BETWEEN 123W-131W. 

A 1030 MB HIGH IS N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N142W EXTENDING A RIDGE 
SEWD TO 27N126W TO 20N11W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 11N W 
OF 111W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND GENERALLY 
LOWER PRES OVER THE U.S. WESTERN COAST IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE 
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE PRES GRADIENT 
IS FORECAST TO RELAX EARLY SATURDAY AS THE 1033 MB HIGH IS 
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WHILE BEING FORCED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD 
BY A COLD FRONT NW OF IT. THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WIND IS 
SUPPORTING SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT IN NORTHERLY SWELL N OF 27N BETWEEN 
119W AND 129W. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 8 FT WITHIN A 
PERIOD OF 30 HOURS WHILE WINDS REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS.

LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS...WITH LEADING EDGE 
PERIOD OF 18-19 SECONDS IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE SOUTH CENTRAL 
WATERS AND IS FORECAST TO REACH MOST OF THE COASTLINE OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND MEXICO DURING TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT BRINGING ROUGH
SURF CONDITIONS TO THOSE COASTS. 

$$ 
NR/AL