000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140959 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI JUN 14 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC...AND IS ALONG 88W N OF 08N TO INLAND EL SALVADOR AND SOUTHERN HONDURAS MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IN CLUSTERS IS OCCURRING N OF 12N TO ALONG THE COAST GUATEMALA BETWEEN 90W-92W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF 10N BETWEEN 86W-92W. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AS IT REACHES NEAR 94W/95W BY EARLY FRI NIGHT...AND TO NEAR 98W IN A RATHER WEAKENED STATE BY BY EARLY SAT EVENING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 08N91W TO 09N101W TO 10N114W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N122W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N122W TO 08N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W-91W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 123W- 126W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WITH MEAN AXIS THROUGH ALONG 127W DOMINATES THE AREA N OF ABOUT 21N. TO ITS SE...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 19N102W WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING E-SE ACROSS SE MEXICO AND TO THE SE PORTION OF HONDURAS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ON THE SE PERIPHERY TO THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO HELP MAINTAIN ACTIVE CONVECTION NEAR THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SAME ANTICYCLONE WSW TO NEAR 13N122W...THEN CONTINUES WESTWARD TO NEAR 132W AND NW TO W OF THE AREA AT 18N140W. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT REMAIN RATHER DRY TO THE N AND S OF THE RIDGE. TO THE W OF THE RIDGE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS ADVECTED NNE UNDER SW UPPER FLOW N OF THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT QUICKLY EVAPORATES IN THE DRY ALOFT PRESENT N OF THE RIDGE. ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 19N102W... UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ACTIVE CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE SPREADS WESTWARD TO NEAR 103W UNDER EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH MOVING E OVER FAR NRN MEXICO IS SETTING OFF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF NRN MEXICO ALONG AND E OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE...A 1033 MB HIGH IS N OF THE AREA AT 37N139W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD TO 28N128W AND TO 21N118W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 117W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND GENERALLY LOWER PRES OVER CALIFORNIA HAS INITIATED GALE NW-N GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO RELAX THROUGH FRI. EVENING AS THE 1033 MB HIGH IS FORCED SWD BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THEN NW. THE HIGH EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES DURING FRI EVENING. THE FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE GALE FORCE WIND AREA WEAKENS TO 20-25 KT N WINDS THAT CURRENTLY SEEP S TO 29N AND BETWEEN 121W-128W PER THE 0502 UTC ASCAT PASS. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 8-9 FT IN A N SWELL. THESE SEAS THEN SUBSIDE TO 8 FT OR LESS BY LATE SAT NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT FURTHER RELAXES. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRES REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N123W...AND IS OBSERVED AS A SMALL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ON NIGHT CHANNEL IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0642W UTC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED THAT A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N130W TO 09N134W. THE TROUGH IS HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST TO THE N OF THE ITCZ AXIS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS PROGS THE TROUGH TO CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK INTO MON...BUT WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS...WITH LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 18-19 SECONDS IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS AND IS FORECAST TO REACH MOST OF THE COASTLINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO DURING TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT BRINGING ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS TO THOSE COASTS. $$ AGUIRRE