000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131604
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC THU JUN 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N83W TO 05N84W. THE WAVE AXIS 
NORTH OF 09N OR THE PORTION OF THE WAVE EXTENDING ACROSS 
NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA IS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE 
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. 
HOWEVER...S OF 09N AND WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE AXIS HIGH MOISTURE 
IS DEPICTED COINCIDING WITH AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO 
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ENHANCED BY SURFACE HEATING AND 
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. VERY WEAK VORTICITY IS ASSOCIATED TO 
THIS WAVE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. CONTINUED GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND BEYOND ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL 
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS 
WILL HELP TO DEVELOP A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW WITHIN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 09N86W TO 10N107W TO 
13N113W TO 11N122W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N122W TO 
10N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 
NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 95W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 230 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
11N TO 14N BETWEEN 116W AND 129W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
30 NM N AND 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...                                              
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE N EAST PACIFIC WATERS ANCHORED BY 
A 1035 MB HIGH NEAR 40N139W. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT N OF 
30N IS FORCING GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN 
CALIFORNIA. THIS IS SUPPORTING WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO 
9 FT NW OF LINE FROM 30N121W TO 22N139W. WITHIN 24 HOURS...WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING 
TO 8 FT IN 48 HOURS. 

THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL 
MEXICO CONTINUES ADVECTING ITCZ CONVECTIVE DEBRIS NE AND 
SUPPLYING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO E PAC. THIS MOISTURE IS 
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 10N 
EAST OF 97W. ELSEWHERE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW VERY DRY AIR 
SUBSIDING WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.    

$$
NR/AL