000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130953
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC THU JUN 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W N OF 05N ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA INTO
CARIBBEAN SEA TO 13N.  WAVE BRINGS PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE 
AND APPROACHES AREA OF MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MAKING IT
A LIKELY CANDIDATE TO INTENSIFICATION.  MODEL GUIDANCE TACITLY
PLAY WITH A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER 1010 MB MEANDERING W WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS OR SEAS NOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL 
ORGANIZATION.  UPPER LEVEL REMAINS AMBIVALENT SO CONFIDENCE IN
ITS IMMEDIATE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POOR.  WHILE TROPICAL MOISTURE
IS ABUNDANT...CONVECTION REMAIN RESTRICTED NEAR INTERSECTION WITH
MONSOON TROUGH AT 09N.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 10N85W TO 09N96W TO 10N106W TO 13N113W TO
12N119W THEN ITCZ AXIS TO BEYOND 07N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 115W TO 121W AND
W OF 137W.

...DISCUSSION...
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE STATIONARY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO CONTINUES ADVECTING ITCZ CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
NE AND SUPPLYING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO E PAC.  SHARP UPSTREAM
TROUGH BRINGS VERY DRY AIR MASS BUT UNABLE TO DENT ANTICYCLONE
FROM ITS POSITION.  SUBSIDING AIR MASS UNDER TROUGH LITERALLY
DRIED OUT TWO SURFACE LOW PRES CENTERS DRIFTING W...ONE AT
11N125W AND A SECOND ONE AT 12N120W.  BOTH EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WITHIN 24 HRS.  BASIN REMAINS VERY DRY N OF 15N W OF 115W.

SECOND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MOVES ACROSS 140W EXTENDING DRY
SLOT EVEN FURTHER W OF 140W.  IT SUPPORTS SURFACE HIGH PRES 
CENTER 1035 MB AT 40N140W CLOSING IN TO BASIN.  HIGH PRES CENTER 
FORCES GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH
IN TURN EXTEND MODERATE TO FRESH N BREEZE AND 12 FT SWELLS INTO 
E PAC S OF 32N.        

$$
WALLY BARNES