000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120952
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC WED JUN 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W N OF 02N EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE
CARIBBEAN.   WAVE BRINGS PLENTY OF CONVECTION ON THE CARIBBEAN
SIDE OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AND ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO 
WARRANT MORE CONVECTION TO ENTER THE EASTERN PORTION OF BASIN.  
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SLIGHTLY DIVERGENT SO SOME SLOW 
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING NEXT TO DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 08N83W TO 10N97W TO 12N107W TO 1009 MB LOW
PRES AT 13N111W TO 09N126W THEN ITCZ AXIS TO BEYOND 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM N QUADRANT OF LOW
PRES CENTER.

...DISCUSSION... 
BROAD STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER SE MEXICO PROVIDES
TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WITH SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR STRENGTHENING WITH A STEADY INFLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A
SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT OUTFLOW ALOFT.  ON THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF
ANTICYCLONE...WELL DEFINED AND VERY DRY ANTICYCLONE LIMITS
MOISTURE WESTWARD FLUX.  CYCLONE ALSO PRESENT ADVERSE ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT FOR SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER 1009 MB AT 13N111W AND HAS 
ALREADY DOOMED SECOND LOW PRES CENTER 1010 MB AT 13N117W...WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS. 

DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE FLOAT BOTH LOW PRES CENTERS AND INTENSIFY
TROPICAL WAVE INTO A THIRD ONE...BUT NONE ACHIEVE ANY TROPICAL
ORGANIZATION BEFORE MEETING THEIR DEMISE UPON REACHING THE VERY
DRY AIR MASS UNDER CYCLONE ALOFT. 

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
STRONG HIGH PRES CENTER 1034 MB WELL NW OF BASIN...BUT DRIFTING
SE EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT WITH SEMI-PERMANENT SURFACE
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INCREASING N WINDS TO POSSIBLE
GALE FORCE WELL N OF 32N...BUT WITH FRESH BREEZE AND PROPAGATING
NE SWELL AS FAR S AS 25N W OF 120W.  

 
$$
WALLY BARNES