000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112144
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC TUE JUN 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 06N77W TO 10N92W TO 09N104W TO A 
1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N108W TO 12N111W TO 08N129W. THE ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 08N129W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 80W 
AND 83W...WITHIN 90 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 91W AND 95W.

...DISCUSSION... 

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED WITHIN 
THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N108W MOVING WWD AT AROUND 14 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED MAINLY 
W OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 108W AND 112W. ANY 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AND 
IT HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS REGION DO 
NOT SUPPORT TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. FARTHER NW... 
THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK 1009 MB LOW PRES. A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECOND LOW.

STRONG HIGH PRES LOCATED NW OF AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SE OVER THE 
N WATERS TO NEAR 20N110W. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING NE WINDS OF 
20 KT OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA PER THE 1828 UTC 
ASCAT PASS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WED NIGHT 
AS PRES GRADIENT SLIGHTLY TIGHTENS THERE. A WEAK SURFACE 
TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW PART 
OF THE AREA...GOES FROM 28N126W TO 23N129W. THIS TROUGH WILL 
DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS 
THE N WATERS.

ALOFT...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW PART OF 
THE FORECAST REGION. AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED NEAR 18N141W EXTENDS 
A RIDGE ENE TO NEAR 21N124W THEN NE TO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA 
AND NW MEXICO. TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE...THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER N-
CENTRAL MEXICO TO NEAR 16N121W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS 
CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 
MOISTURE SPREADING WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
RIDGING. EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT DOMINATE THE REMAINDER 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...PARTICULARLY EAST OF 103W WITH AN 
OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUSTAINING CONVECTION IN AREAS 
SOUTH OF PANAMA...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA...AND ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH. 

CURRENTLY...NLY SWELLS ACROSS THE N WATERS ARE RAISING SEAS TO 
ABOUT 10 FT BASED ON THE MOST RECENT ALTIMETER PASS. THIS SWELL 
EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8-
9 FT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. FINALLY...LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL 
SW SWELLS...WITH WAVE PERIOD OF 16-18 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO 
IMPACT THE WATERS E OF 115W. A NEW SW SWELL TRAIN WITH LEADING 
EDGE PERIOD OF 17-19 SECONDS IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE 
SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS ON WED REACHING THE COASTLINE THU NIGHT. 

$$
GR