000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111533
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC TUE JUN 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N77W TO 10N84W TO 11N100W TO A 
1009 MB LOW NEAR 14N107W TO 15N112W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 
14N115W TO 09N120W TO 08N128W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE 
ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N128W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 77W 
AND 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 08N 
BETWEEN 81W AND 84W...FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...AND 
FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 106W AND 112W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N107W TO 
10N114W.

...DISCUSSION...                                            
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH IS ALONG 34N129W TO 25N137W WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE 
FEATURE AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 30N128W TO 
24N128W. EARLIER OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASSES INDICATED NE WINDS IN 
THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH NE SWELL 
MAINTAINING SEAS TO 10 FT AND WITH THE OUTLOOK OF A SUBSIDING 
TREND OF SEAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE NW CORNER OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA.

FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED LOW EXTENDS 
FROM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 26N103W TO SOUTH OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NEAR 22N110W. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS 
FARTHER SOUTHWEST TO A BASE NEAR 17N120W WITH DRY AIR AND 
INCREASED WIND SHEAR ALOFT TO PROVIDE AN OVERALL ADVERSE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR A PAIR OF WEAK 1009 MB LOWS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 107W AND 115W. WINDS SURROUNDING THE LOWS 
REMAIN BELOW 20 KT ACCORDING TO EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASSES 
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THE EASTERN-MOST LOW CARRIES MORE CONVECTION 
WITH IT AT THIS TIME...PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH FROM 07N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 106W AND 112W. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY ENHANCED DUE 
TO LESSER AMOUNTS OF UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH.

FURTHERMORE...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER 
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOISTURE 
SPREADING WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING. 
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT DOMINATE EAST OF 103W WITH AN 
OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUSTAINING CONVECTION IN AREAS 
SOUTH OF PANAMA...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA...AND IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT LACK ANY SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL ORGANIZATION.

FINALLY...16 TO 18 SECOND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL 
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA COAST 
W OF 105W THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SWELL 
TRAIN OF 17 TO 19 SECONDS FORECAST TO IMPACT A LARGER AREA OF 
THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY...STRETCHING 
FROM THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST TO THE COAST OF WESTERN 
COLOMBIA.

$$
HUFFMAN