000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110951
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC TUE JUN 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS 10N94W TO 15N12W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES AT 14N114W 
TO 09N122W TO 08N129W THEN ITCZ 06N135W TO BEYOND 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 270 NM S OF
AXIS FROM 87W TO 111W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS NW CORNER OF BASIN BRINGING MORE DRY 
AIR MASS INTO AN ALREADY DRY REGION UNDER BROAD ELONGATED RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM 18N140W TO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  RECENTLY
FORMED CYCLONE ALOFT OVER TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS TROUGH
EXTENDING SW TO 07N123W AND PRESENTING AN ADVERSE ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT FOR SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER 1009 MB.  MODEL GUIDANCE
SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF INCREASING THE SOUTHWESTERLIES IN 
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF LOW PRES AND NOW DISSIPATE CENTER WITHIN 
48 HRS.  

DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...THIS ONE OVER YUCATAN
PENINSULA...ADVECTS ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE UNTO
EASTERN PORTION OF BASIN S OF 17N AND E OF 110W.  DIVERGING FLOW
ALOFT PROMPTS SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WHICH
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED...BUT LACKING ANY TROPICAL
ORGANIZATION.  

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM 29N128W TO 22N131W CARRIES ONLY A
MODERATE NE BREEZE AND A SLOWLY SUBSIDING 11 FT NE SWELL W OF 
AXIS.  BROAD HIGH PRES CENTER 1037 MB WELL NW OF E PAC DRIFT SE
WED AND THU DIMINISHING WINDS TO A GENTLE BREEZE AND SUBSIDING
SEAS BELOW 8 FT.  

$$
WALLY BARNES