000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110230
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC TUE JUN 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ALONG 10N FROM NW COLOMBIA TO 
ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO OVER THE PACIFIC AT 10N97W...THEN 
TURNS NW INTO AN EMBEDDED 1010 MB LOW PRES AT 14N114W...THEN 
TRAILS SW FROM THE LOW TO 08N128W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS 
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES SW TO 
BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 
LINE FROM 06N82W TO 14N109W...WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINES 
FROM 11N114W TO 09N121W...AND FROM 08N133W TO 06N139W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED WITHIN 30 
NM OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 87W TO 93W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                
AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 36N132W TRAILING AN UPPER TROUGH 
SW TO 24N136W. THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE NE BUT WEAKEN TO AN OPEN 
UPPER TROUGH JUST PRIOR TO MOVING ACROSS CALIFORNIA ON WED. AT 
THE LOW LEVELS A TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 32N125W TO 24N123W. 
SURFACE HIGH PRES W OF THIS TROUGH IS MAINTAINING NE WINDS AT
20 KT...SEAS 7 TO 10 FT IN N SWELL...ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS
TO THE N OF 27N BETWEEN 130W-140W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL 
DISSIPATE ON TUE NIGHT. THE AFFECTED AREA OF ENHANCED NE WINDS
WILL SHIFT S TO ALONG 24N W OF 128W ON TUE THEN BEGIN TO 
DIMINISH. ANOTHER N SURGE AT 20 KT WILL MOVE INTO THE N-CENTRAL 
WATERS BETWEEN 118W-128W ON THU.     

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 21N126W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE 
EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
EVENTUALLY INTO ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER SE NEW MEXICO.
AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS W TO BEYOND 19N140W. THIS RIDGE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR ALOFT. WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ROUGHLY IN PHASE
WITH THE LOWER LEVEL MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS...AND IS
SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED BETWEEN 114W-140W.

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER OLD MEXICO AT 22N104W AND IS SHIFTING 
W WHILE ENHANCING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE 
OCCIDENTAL. GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS UPPER CYCLONE WILL REACH OVER 
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON WED. AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NW PORTION OF 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING S TO A 
CREST OVER THE PACIFIC AT 13N92W. AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR THE 
SE BAHAMAS HAS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE BORDER OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA INTO
AN UPPER CYCLONE S OF THE EQUATOR AT 01S85W. THESE UPPER 
FEATURES COMBINE TO SET UP AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER
THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 110W AND SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION
WITHIN THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF MONSOON TROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED.   

$$
NELSON