000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102151
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC MON JUN 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS WNW FROM THE BORDER OF PANAMA AND
COLOMBIA TO ACROSS NORTHERN PANAMA AND ACROSS COSTA RICA TO 
OVER THE PACIFIC AT 13N110W...THEN TURNS SW TO 08N123W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ
AXIS CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 
240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N78W TO 11N110W...WITHIN 90
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N114W TO 09N120W...AND ALONG THE
ITCZ WITHIN 150 NM OF 07N134W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 35N133W TRAILING AN UPPER TROUGH 
SW 25N138W. THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE NE BUT WEAKEN TO A TROUGH JUST
PRIOR TO MOVING ACROSS CALIFORNIA ON WED. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW
IS CURRENTLY AT 30N125W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 23N123W.
SURFACE HIGH PRES W OF THIS SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH IS MAINTAINING
NE WINDS AT 20 KT...SEAS TO 10 FT IN N SWELL...ACROSS THE FORECAST
WATERS TO THE N OF 27N BETWEEN 127W-140W. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
LIFT OUT TO THE NE ON TUE WITH THE TRAILING TROUGH DISSIPATING 
ON TUE NIGHT. THE AFFECTED AREA OF NE WILL SHIFT S TO ALONG 22N 
W OF 129W ON WED THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH. ANOTHER N SURGE AT 20
KT WILL MOVE INTO THE N-CENTRAL WATERS BETWEEN 118W-128W ON THU.     

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 20N131W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE 
EXTENDING ENE ACROSS THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NOW 
CRESTING OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS
W TO BEYOND 19N140W. THIS RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR 
ALOFT. WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ROUGHLY IN PHASE WITH THE LOWER LEVEL 
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS...AND IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION 
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED BETWEEN 116W-134W.

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER OLD MEXICO AT 23N103W. GUIDANCE MOVES 
THIS CYCLONE W TO OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON 
WED. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS REFORMED OVER THE NW PORTION OF 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO A 
CREST OVER THE PACIFIC AT 13N97W. AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR THE 
WINDWARD PASSAGE HAS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SSW ACROSS THE 
BORDER OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE S OF THE 
EQUATOR AT 04S84W. THESE UPPER FEATURES COMBINE TO SET UP AN 
AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 110W AND 
SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION WITHIN THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF MONSOON 
TROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED.   

$$
NELSON