000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101602 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON JUN 10 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 09N75W TO 09.5N88W TO 12.5N103W TO 14.5N111W TO 08.5N124W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ON BOTH SIDES OF THE TROUGH...AND NOTED FROM 05.5N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 77W AND 86W...FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 89W AND 99W...AND FROM 07N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 104W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS ALSO NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 98W AND 108W...AND WITHIN 150 NM N AND 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 113W AND 122W. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM OF 07.5N132W. ...DISCUSSION... VERY MODEST CHANGES ARE SEEN IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS W PORTIONS...CENTERED ON AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 19N131W EXTENDING E-NE TO 24N118W...AND WILL SHIFT AND REORGANIZE FARTHER W DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. N OF THE RIDGE...TWO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONES CARVE OUT BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE GENERAL WLY FLOW ALOFT. ONE CYCLONE WAS CENTERED NEAR 30N137W WITH TROUGH EXTENDING S-SW TO NEAR 25N139W...AND SHIFTING SLOWLY E-SE. A SECOND DEEP LAYERED AND VIGOROUS CYCLONE OFFSHORE OF SRN CALIFORNIA YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED NE TO COASTAL CALIFORNIA NEAR 36N121W WHILE WEAKENING...BUT HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE N SEMICIRCLE ACROSS NRN CALIFORNIA. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER LOW SE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TO NEAR 30N115W. AN ASSOCIATED 1011 MB SURFACE LOW WAS DEPICTED EARLIER THIS MORNING BY SCATTEROMETER PASSES NEAR 33N122.5W...AND HAS BEEN LEFT BEHIND BY THE PARENT UPPER LOW. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL TO THE NW NEAR 46N154W CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD ZONE OF FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS EXTENDING FROM N CALIFORNIA AND THE WATERS WELL OFFSHORE...TO THE W OF THE LOW...WITH EARLY MORNING SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWING N TO NE WINDS AROUND 20 KT EXTENDING S ACROSS 30N AND INTO THE LOCAL WATERS FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 130W AND 136W. NORTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THIS AREA IS PRODUCING SEAS TO 10 FT N OF 26.5N BETWEEN 122W AND 140W. THIS NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT N AND NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH SEAS 8 FT AND GREATER GRADUALLY SHIFT WWD. E OF THE UPPER RIDGE...DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND EXTENDS SW TO A NARROW AND ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERING MUCH OF MEXICO N OF 18N...AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS LEADING TO CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION. ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY THERE. SE OF THIS TROUGH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS STRENGTHENED...STILL CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 13N99W. E OF THIS...A TUTT AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SE BAHAMAS SW TO PANAMA. AN UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA IS AIDING IN SUSTAINING DEEP CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE THERE. AT LOWER LEVELS...THE EPAC SURFACE RIDGE IS REMOVED FAR FROM THE AREA...WITH THE LOCAL PRES GRADIENT N OF THE ITCZ YIELDING ONLY 10-15 KT NE TRADES S OF 16N AND W OF 128W. LIGHT TO MODERATE MONSOONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICS E OF 128W. MODEL ANALYSIS AND TPW ANIMATIONS SUGGEST ELY WAVE LIKE PERTURBATIONS MOVING SLOWLY WWD THROUGH THIS AREA...CENTERED ALONG 95W AND 107W...AND WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ STRIPLING