000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100954
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC MON JUN 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS 10N86W TO 12N110W TO 10N120W THEN ITCZ AXIS
TO 08N125W TO BEYOND 08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
WITHIN 300 NM S OF AXIS E OF 108W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS FROM 127W TO 134W. 

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTEND EASTWARD FROM 
ANTICYCLONE AT 19N134W TO 17N110W.  DEVELOPING CYCLONE ALOFT AT
21N103W BRINGS A TOUCH OF MOISTURE INTO AN OTHERWISE VERY DRY
REGION.  ATTENDANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND FROM CYCLONE TO 
12N102W.  SMALL AREA OF DIVERGENCE AT BASE OF TROUGH ENHANCES
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG MONSOON TROUGH.
MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS LOW PRES AT THE SURFACE UNDER AREA OF 
DIVERGENT FLOW AND DRIFT IT NE WHILE INCREASING SURFACE SW FLOW 
IN SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LOW PRES...NEAR 1009 MB.  SURFACE LOW
PRES LOSES UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT DRIFTS NE...WEAKENS AND 
DISSIPATES BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD WITHOUT GETTING ANY
TROPICAL ORGANIZATION.

SECOND ANTICYCLONE...THIS ONE OVER YUCATAN PENINSULA...ADVECTS
PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO EASTERN PART OF BASIN JUST AT
MONSOON TROUGH LATITUDES TO PROMPT SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. 

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
HEALTHY HIGH PRES CENTER 1038 MB WELL NW OF E PAC AND WEAK LOW
PRES AT 32N122W PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH SPREADING 10-12 FT NE SWELL ENCROACHING S OF 30N
INTO E PAC.     

$$
WALLY BARNES