000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091535 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN JUN 09 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1430 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W MEANDERING W TO 10N96W TO 14N108W TO 08N132W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED ON EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS...FROM 04N TO 11.5N E OF 87W...AND FROM 06N TO THE COASTLINE ALONG 16.5N BETWEEN 88W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF TROUGH FROM 114W TO 132W. ...DISCUSSION... A RELATIVELY STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TODAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO E ALONG ABOUT 18N...CENTERED ON AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 18N138W... EXTENDING TO OFFSHORE OF SE MEXICO...WHERE THE BASE OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH DOMINATING MOST OF THE U.S. HAS BROADENED ACROSS MEXICO AND THE W GULF OF MEXICO. A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE REMAINS CUT OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIFORNIA WITH A WEAK TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S-SW TO NEAR 21N123W...WHICH HAS WEAKENED THE N PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THERE. S OF THE RIDGE...ELY FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT W OF 110W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES FROM THE YUCATAN NE ACROSS S FLORIDA AND INTO THE SW N ATLC WHILE IMMEDIATELY TO ITS SE LIES A TUTT AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS SW TO PANAMA. DUE TO THIS CONFIGURATION...NE FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY PREVAILS ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS BETWEEN 80W AND 110W. A STRONG SHORTWAVE DOVE INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH YESTERDAY AND HAS PUSHED S INTO NORTHERN MEXICO OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO S OF 22N CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN INSTABILITY LEADING TO CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG THE COASTS OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO. GOES IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED DEEP OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS CONVECTION...SUGGESTING STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS SLOWLY SE. AT LOW LEVELS...A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW RESIDES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST...UNDERNEATH THE DEEP LAYERED CUT OFF LOW...AND CONTINUES TO FUNNEL COOL NORTHERLY WINDS INTO N AND NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH A SMALL AREA OF GALES CONTINUE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CALIFORNIA EXTENDING W TO 130W...AND ARE GENERATING NORTHERLY SWELL THAT IS PROPAGATING INTO THE N PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EARLY MORNING ALTIMETER PASSES SHOWED SEAS TO 8 FT IN THIS N SWELL HAD SPREAD S AS FAR AS 28.5N BETWEEN 124W AND 134W. THE SURFACE LOW WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ALLOW HIGH PRES AND FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS TO SPILL INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND JUST W OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8- 11 FT N OF 25N AND W OF 126W BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH NE WINDS 20-25 KT SPREADING ACROSS NW PORTIONS. THIS LOW IS ALSO BLOCKING THE PACIFIC SURFACE RIDGE FROM BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...AND THUS ONLY MODERATE NE TRADES AT AROUND 15 KT PREVAIL N OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W. LIGHT TO MODERATE MONSOONAL FLOW PREVAILS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND IS FORCING LARGE CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO HELP MAINTAIN VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION ABOUT THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 100W AND 120W DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. $$ STRIPLING