000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090231
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC SUN JUN 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ALONG 10N FROM THE NW COAST OF 
COLOMBIA TO ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO OVER THE PACIFIC AT 
09N95W...THEN TURNS NW TO 13N111W...THEN SW TO 07N138W WHERE 
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ
AXIS CONTINUES W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 08N80W TO 07N105W AND ALSO WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 13N107W TO 08N128W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 31N123W WITH A NARROW TROUGH
EXTENDING SSW THROUGH 21N130W TO 15N131W. AN UPPER CYCLONE
CONTINUES OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 00N135W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE
IS QUASI-STATIONARY AT 22N117W...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING E
TO A SHARP CREST OVER COASTAL OLD MEXICO AT 19N104W. AN UPPER 
RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS W TO A CREST AT 17N128W. A UPPER RIDGE IS
AMPLIFYING N OVER THE WESTERN PORTION ALONG 20N140W TO 25N131W
ACCOMPANIED BY DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM FORMER ITCZ CONVECTION THAT 
W OF THE AREA BETWEEN 145W-160W. THE LARGE ANTICYCLONE JUST
MENTIONED IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR AND IS SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 14N W OF 103W.
WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER
RIDGE IS ROUGHLY IN PHASE WITH THE LOWER LEVEL MONSOON TROUGH 
AXIS...AND IS LIKELY SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY 
DESCRIBED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 108W-130W.

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE 
BASE OF TROUGH OVER OLD MEXICO NEAR 18N100W WITH SMALL CLUSTERS 
OF CONVECTION FLARING OVER INTERIOR MEXICO ALONG THE TROUGH BASE.
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS STATIONARY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT
19N90W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW OVER THE PACIFIC TO A 
CREST AT 12N98W. ALTHOUGH CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION FLARED UNDER 
THE RIDGE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER BELIZE AND 
GUATEMALA...THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVER THE
PACIFIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 93W-105W. A TUTT EXTENDS SW FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...CONTINUING SW
OVER THE FAR SE PORTION TO AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 01N84W. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS OVER NW COLOMBIA JUST E OF THIS TUTT AXIS...WITH UPPER
DIFFLUENCE INDUCED OVER THE PACIFIC FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN
78W-90W...SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...WITH
THE AREA NOW DECREASING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. 

$$
NELSON