000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082153
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC SAT JUN 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE BORDER OF PANAMA AND 
COLOMBIA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF PANAMA TURNING NW ACROSS
THE PACIFIC TO 12N103W...THEN TURNS SW TO 09N133W WHERE 
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE 
ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM
04N-11N BETWEEN 77W-87W INCLUDING OVER ALL OF PANAMA AND THE
EASTERN HALF OF COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
FROM 11N91W TO 08N94W TO 07N105W AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N111W TO 08N127W.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                                
AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 31N123W WITH A NARROW TROUGH
EXTENDING SSW TO 15N131W. AN UPPER CYCLONE CONTINUES OVER THE
DEEP TROPICS AT 00N134W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY
AT 21N119W...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING E TO A SHARP CREST
OVER COASTAL OLD MEXICO AT 17N101W. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS
W TO A CREST AT 16N129W. A UPPER RIDGE IS AMPLIFYING N OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION ALONG 21N140W TO 27N129W ACCOMPANIED BY DEBRIS
MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION W OF THE AREA BETWEEN 145W-160W. 
THE LARGE ANTICYCLONE JUST MENTIONED IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER 
AIR AND IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
AREA N OF 14N W OF 103W. WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ROUGHLY IN PHASE WITH 
THE LOWER LEVEL MONSOON TROUGH AXIS...AND IS LIKELY SUPPORTING 
THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH BETWEEN 110W-127W.

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE 
BASE OF TROUGH OVER OLD MEXICO NEAR 18N100W. AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS OBSERVED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 19N90W 
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW OVER THE PACIFIC AT 12N97W. 
ALTHOUGH CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION IS FLARING UNDER THE RIDGE OVER 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER BELIZE AND GUATEMALA...THE RIDGE 
SEEMS TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVER THE PACIFIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 
92W-100W. A TUTT EXTENDS SW FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE FAR SE PORTION TO AN UPPER 
CYCLONE AT 01N88W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER NW COLOMBIA JUST E OF 
THE TUTT AXIS...WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE INDUCED OVER PANAMA AND 
THE SURROUNDING CARIBBEAN AND PACIFIC WATERS...AND IS SUPPORTING 
THE RECENT INTENSE BURST OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. 

$$
NELSON