000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081551 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT JUN 08 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1430 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED FROM COASTAL COLOMBIA NEAR 08N75W TO 08.5N80W TO 13N89W TO 13N101W TO LOW PRES 1006 MB NEAR 11N106W ON TO 07.5N132W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON BEYOND 08N140W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED ON BOTH SIDES OF TROUGH FROM 04N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 76W AND 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WELL S OF TROUGH FROM 05.5N TO 08.5N BETWEEN 91.5W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 120 NM S OF TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 109W AND 120W. SMALL ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING WITHIN 120 NM OF 13.5N99W...AND ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GOES IR IMAGERY DETECTED ISOLATED DEEP OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS WITHIN THESE CELLS...LIKELY INDICATING STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ...DISCUSSION... THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY GENERALLY STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP TROPICS THIS MORNING...WITH LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND CONVECTION CONFINED ALONG THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH ZONES...FROM 06N TO 11N W OF 112W...AND N OF 04.5N TO COASTAL SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHEAST MEXICO E OF 110W. AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY...CENTERED AT 22N119W...AND CRESTED AT ABOUT 30N ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE...WITH A DEEP LAYERED CUT OFF CYCLONE JUST TO THE NW SLOWLY BECOMING ELONGATED E-NE TO W-SW NEAR 32N120W. E OF THE RIDGE...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA...WITH MEAN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S OF 30N ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO ALONG 99W. A VERY NARROW RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC...DAMMED IN BETWEEN THE BROAD TROUGH AND A TUTT AXIS EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA SW ACROSS PANAMA TO A BROAD UPPER CYCLONE JUST S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. GOOD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING WAS EVIDENT INVOF PANAMA AND WAS AIDING IN THE RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION THERE. AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA...WITH TWO WEAK 1025 MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 44N133W AND 38N141W RESPECTIVELY. THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS S ALONG 145W...AND SE TO NEAR 19N114W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGHS AND THE ITCZ IS ONLY PRODUCING 15-20 KT NE TRADE WINDS S OF 19N AND W OF 124W...PER OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. HOWEVER...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGHS AND LOW PRES ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NLY WINDS OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH A SMALL AREA OF EMBEDDED GALES. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE GENERATING MODERATE PERIOD N SWELL WHICH IS INVADING N PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH SEAS 8-9 FT EXPECTED TO MOVE S INTO THE WATERS N OF 28N FROM 124W TO 134W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BUILD TO 8-10 FT N OF 27N FROM 123W TO 138W BY 48 HOURS. MONSOONAL FLOW HAS DOMINATED THE TROPICS AREA E OF 110W FOR THE PAST 2 WEEKS...PRODUCING PERIODS OF VERY WET WEATHER. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED LIGHT TO MODERATE SW TO W WINDS OCCURRING S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...WITH A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION RECENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH...ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB NEAR 11N106W THIS MORNING. GLOBAL MODELS HAD SUGGESTED IN RECENT DAYS THAT THERE WAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOW TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE IS NO LONGER INDICATING SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN THIS CIRCULATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THE LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY NW. ANIMATIONS OF SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS SHOWS THE CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR THIS LOW CONTINUING TO SHIFT W NEAR 15 KT...AND IS SHIFTING WELL W OF THE LOW AT THIS TIME. ELSEWHERE...LONG PERIOD CROSS HEMISPHERIC SW SWELL CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS E OF 120W...NOW WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF 8 FT SEAS FROM 04N TO 16N BETWEEN 91W AND 114W REMAINING. THIS AREA OF 8 FT SEAS IS EXPECTED TO SHRINK SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ADDITIONAL PULSES OF SW SWELL MOVE THROUGH THE REGIONAL WATERS AND MIX WITH WIND WAVES GENERATED BY MODERATE SW MONSOONAL WINDS. $$ STRIPLING