000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080947
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC SAT JUN 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS 11N86W TO 13N90W TO 13N102W TO LOW PRES 1009
MB AT 11N106W TO 09N126W THEN ITCZ TO 08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 107W TO 119W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...                                                
BROAD STATIONARY MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SITS AT 20N118W
PROVIDING DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS TO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE  
BASIN.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL STRATIFIED CLOUDS WITH NO
SIGNS OF CONVECTION NOTED N OF 14N FROM 103W TO 134W.  TROPICAL 
MOISTURE ENTERS WESTERN SIDE OF E PAC N OF 16N W OF 134W RIDING  
50 KT JETSTREAM AHEAD OF UPSTREAM CYCLONE AND TROUGH WELL W OF 
BASIN. 

SECOND ANTICYCLONE...THIS ONE OVER GUATEMALA...PROMOTES ADVECTION
OF LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO EASTERN SIDE OF BASIN MAINLY
ALONG MONSOON TROUGH.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN BOTH
ANTICYCLONES PROMPTS REGION OF MODERATE DIVERGENCE ABOVE LOW PRES
1009 MB AT 11N106W.  SURFACE LOW PRES ABLE TO SURVIVE SUCH ADVERSE
DRY ENVIRONMENT DUE TO LARGE AMOUNT OF ADVECTED MOISTURE IT BRINGS
ALONG AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT.  MODEL GUIDANCE INTENSIFIES LOW PRES
...ALTHOUGH NOT TO TROPICAL ORGANIZATION...BUT INCREASE SW FRESH
WINDS AND BUILD SEAS TO 11 FT LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD.

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
SW SWELLS SUBSIDING QUICKLY WITH ONLY SMALL AREA OF 8 FT SEAS
REMAINING IN CENTRAL E PAC BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD.  SMALL AREA OF 
N SWELLS ENCROACHES IN NORTHERN LATITUDES BETWEEN 124W-133W SAT 
NIGHT THROUGH SUN. 

$$
WALLY BARNES