000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080232
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC SAT JUN 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ACROSS PANAMA...THEN TURNS NW 
ACROSS INTERIOR COSTA RICA...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE PARALLELING THE 
PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA TO 13N91W...THEN SW TO AN EMBEDDED 
1007 LOW PRESSURE AT 11N105W...THEN CONTINUES W AND SW TO 
09N125W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN 
ITCZ. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES W TO BEYOND 08N140W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM OF THE 
PACIFIC COAST OF PANAMA AND EL SALVADOR...AND IN TWO CLUSTERS 
WITHIN 150 NM OF 08.5N123W AND 08N139W. 

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 
120 NM OF 10N105W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AT 11N104W. THIS LOW IS 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11.5N105W 
EARLY SAT...AND NEAR 13N107W EARLY SUN AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS 
NORTHWARD. 
 
...DISCUSSION...                                                
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM AN UPPER CYCLONE 
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N120W THROUGH 31N130W THEN SW TO 
ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE CUTTING OFF N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AT 
23N155W. AN UPPER CYCLONE CONTINUES OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 
02N132W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE AREA ALONG 
06N140W TO 04N136W. THESE TWO FEATURES COMBINE TO PRODUCE A 
SMALL AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 137W-154W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI 
STATIONARY AT 23N117W...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING E TO A 
SHARP CREST OVER COASTAL OLD MEXICO AT 19N101W. AN UPPER RIDGE 
ALSO EXTENDS W TO A CREST AT 15N138W. WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ROUGHLY IN 
PHASE WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND IS LIKELY SUPPORTING THE 
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED NEAR THE EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW AT 
11N104W.

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE 
BASE OF TROUGH OVER OLD MEXICO AT 17N98W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS 
NOTED ACROSS THE TROPICAL PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE 
E OF 100W. INTENSE CONVECTION HAS FLARED OVER THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA AND EXTREME SE OLD MEXICO. A MOISTURE PLUME IS 
OBSERVED UNDER THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 93W-86W...AND EXTENDS NNE ACROSS THE NW 
CARIBBEAN FEEDING INTO THE CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. 

$$
NELSON