000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071532
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC FRI JUN 7 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO LOW PRES 1007 MB NEAR 
11N106W TO 10N119W THEN TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ NEAR 09N125W WHICH 
EXTENDS BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 121W.

...DISCUSSION...
                                                
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 21N116W COVER SUPPRESSING 
CONVECTION N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN 100W AND 130W. 
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG CONVERGENCE 
ZONE BOUNDARY FROM 103W TO 122W.
  
LOW LEVEL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 36N138W 
PREVAILS ACROSS NW PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N W OF 
117W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS 
MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS IN S QUADRANT 
OF LOW NEAR 11N106W...WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND 
ENHANCED TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 128W. SEA HEIGHTS ARE 
5 TO 8 FT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL 
SW SWELL PREVAILING ACROSS THE E PACIFIC CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE. 

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS. WEAK LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL 
DRIFT AIMLESSLY NEAR 12N106W THROUGH TUE WITH FRESH W-SW WINDS 
IN THE S QUADRANT...ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO 7-8 FT BY MON. A 
NEW SURGE OF NORTHERLY SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS ALONG 
COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL PUSH S OF 30N W OF 120W SUN THROUGH TUE.

$$
MUNDELL