000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070231
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC FRI JUN 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM NW COLOMBIA ACROSS NORTHERN
PANAMA...TURNING NW ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COSTA RICA...
ACROSS SW NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR LOSING IDENTITY OVER
SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EVIDENT AGAIN OVER
THE PACIFIC AT 13N100W AND WIGGLES SW TO 08N123W WHERE 
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE
ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES W TO BEYOND 09N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA WITHIN 
60 NM OF 04N84W...AND OVER THE PACIFIC WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM 04N84W TO 08N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 
LINE FROM 09N101W TO 11N108W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM 05N131W TO 08N134W TO 08N140W. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH 
NEAR 12N104W LATE FRI NIGHT...WITH THE LOW MOVING NW TO NEAR
13N108W LATE SAT NIGHT AS THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY N IN THAT AREA. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH UPPER
CYCLONES AT 33N125W AND 23N150W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOSING 
IDENTITY FROM 36N122W TO 30N133W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING
SE FROM 32N140W TO 16N115W BRIDGING THROUGH THE TROUGH. AN 
UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 03N126W WITH AN 
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 03N140W TO THE EQUATOR AT 133W.
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 23N116W...WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING E TO A CREST OVER OLD MEXICO AT 20N98W. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS SW TO A SHARP CREST AT 14N133W. THIS
PATTERN PRODUCES A SMALL AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS 
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED ALONG THE 
ITCZ...AS WELL AS THE CONVECTION NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH 
BETWEEN 100W-115W. 

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
THE BASE OF TROUGH NOW DEEPING OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 15N98W.
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS NOTED ACROSS THE TROPICAL PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA TO THE E OF 95W. A MOISTURE PLUME IS OBSERVED
UNDER THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA BETWEEN 92W-84W...AND EXTENDS NNE ACROSS THE NW 
CARIBBEAN FEEDING INTO THE CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO AND ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA. 

LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS E OF 122W REACHING AS FAR N AS 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND MIXING WITH N SWELL ACROSS THE OPEN
PACIFIC WATERS W OF 110W. NW WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT 15-20 KT
ALONG THE ENTIRE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE 
GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ON FRI WITH THESE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 
10-15 KT AS THE THE SOUTHERLY SWELL SUBSIDES. EXPECT THE 
RESULTANT SEAS TO BE 3-5 FT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA E OF 120W
OVER THE WEEKEND.

$$
NELSON