000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062149
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC THU JUN 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE BORDER OF COLOMBIA AND
PANAMA ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA...TURNING NW ALONG THE SW
COAST OF PANAMA AND THE SE COAST OF COSTA RICA TO OVER THE 
PACIFIC NEAR 14N96W...THEN THE TROUGH AXIS TURNS SW AGAIN TO
09N121W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES SW TO 07N130W...THEN TURNS NW
TO BEYOND 09N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED WELL S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF A LINE FROM 04N77W TO 11N93W TO 09N99W TO ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH AT 12N106W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED 
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 30 NM OF 10N119W...AND ALSO
ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
06N129W TO 09N136W. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N104W LATE FRI
NIGHT...WITH THE LOW MOVING NW TO NEAR 13N108W LATE SAT NIGHT
AS THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY N IN THAT AREA. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH UPPER
CYCLONES AT 32N125W AND 25N145W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM 36N122W TO 30N133W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE FROM
32N140W TO 16N115W. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS
AT 02N125W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING E ALONG THE EQUATOR
FROM 140W TO 132W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 
22N117W...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING E TO A CREST OVER
OLD MEXICO AT 20N100W. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS SW TO A
SHARP CREST AT 12N132W. THIS PATTERN PRODUCES A SMALL AREA
OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS ENHANCING THE ISOLATED CONVECTION 
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED ALONG THE ITCZ...AS WELL AS THE ISOLATED
CONVECTION S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 100W-120W. 

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
THE BASE OF TROUGH NOW DEEPING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS NOTED ACROSS THE TROPICAL PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA TO THE E OF 95W. A MOISTURE PLUME IS OBSERVED
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 
92W-85W...AND EXTENDS NNE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FEEDING 
INTO THE CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. 

LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS E OF 123W REACHING AS FAR N AS 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND MIXING WITH N SWELL ACROSS THE OPEN
PACIFIC WATERS W OF 110W. NW WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT 15-20 KT
ALONG THE ENTIRE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE 
GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ON FRI WITH THESE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 
10-15 KT AS THE THE SOUTHERLY SWELL SUBSIDES. EXPECT THE 
RESULTANT SEAS TO BE 3-5 FT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA E OF 120W
OVER THE WEEKEND.

$$
NELSON