000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051514
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC WED JUN 05 2013 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1400 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ALONG ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 
COLOMBIA S OF PANAMA ALONG 07N81W TO OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 
12N87W...THEN LOSES IDENTITY OVER HONDURAS. THE MONSOON TROUGH 
IS EVIDENT AGAIN FROM LOW PRES 1010 NEAR 11N110W TO 09N119W. 
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N119W TO 07N124W TO 09N129W TO 08N136W TO 
09N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 07N E OF 81W TO 
INLAND OVER COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 81W AND 87W...FROM 06N TO 11N 
BETWEEN 90W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
120/150 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 91W AND 100W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 
123W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 32N128W WITH AN 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 32N126W TO 29N127W TO 
26N129W. THIS IS RESULTING IN A FAIRLY WEAK PRES PATTERN OVER 
THE E PACIFIC WATERS W OF 110W WITH ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE 
TRADES OBSERVED ANYWHERE. GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE WAVE MODELS SHOW 
THE SWELL PERSISTING THROUGH THU. 

E OF 110W...MODERATE SW FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA S OF 
14N...KEEPING THE MONSOON TROUGH DISPLACED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. 
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FLARING OFF THE 
COAST FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO...THE RESULT OF CONVERGENCE 
OF THIS SW FLOW WITH OPPOSING DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE COAST. 
DESPITE THE SW FLOW AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE 
AREA...DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS BEING 
INHIBITED W OF 100W BY SUBSIDENT NE FLOW ALOFT ON THE SE SIDE OF 
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 19N111W. 

LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL IS PROPAGATING NE ACROSS THE
AREA RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS HEIGHTS OF 7-11 FT. SEAS TO 8 FT
WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA 
TO CENTRAL MEXICO ON TONIGHT...AND AS FAR N AS THE CENTRAL BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EARLY THU...THEN SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT 
BY FRI AFTERNOON. THE SW SWELL MAY CAUSE HAZARDOUS BREAKING SURF 
CONDITIONS ALONG EXPOSED REEFS AND COASTS. NW WINDS CURRENTLY AT 
10-15 KT ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL 
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO LATE THU 
NIGHT.       
 
$$
PAW/JS