000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC WED JUN 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ALONG ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 
PANAMA TO NICARAGUA...THEN LOSES IDENTITY OVER HONDURAS. THE 
MONSOON TROUGH IS EVIDENT AGAIN FROM LOW PRES 1007 NEAR 11N110W 
TO 09N120W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 11N131W. ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 
11N131W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 
09N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
90 NM BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 33N129W WITH AN 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 32N125W TO 29N126W TO 
27N130W. THIS IS RESULTING IN A FAIRLY WEAK PRES PATTERN OVER 
THE E PACIFIC WATERS W OF 110W WITH ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE 
TRADES OBSERVED ANYWHERE. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM 2240 UTC 
INDICATED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT N OF 25N...THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT 
NORTHERLY SWELL PUSHING INTO THE AREA MAINLY W OF 125W. GLOBAL 
AND ENSEMBLE WAVE MODELS SHOW THE SWELL PERSISTING THROUGH THU. 

E OF 110W...MODERATE SW FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA S OF 
12N...KEEPING THE MONSOON TROUGH DISPLACED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. 
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FLARING 
OFF THE COAST FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO...THE RESULT OF 
CONVERGENCE OF THIS SW FLOW WITH OPPOSING DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE 
COAST. DESPITE THE SW FLOW AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 
OVER THE AREA...DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS 
BEING INHIBITED BY SUBSIDENT NE FLOW ALOFT ON THE SE SIDE OF AN 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 19N110W. 

LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL IS PROPAGATING NE ACROSS THE
AREA RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS HEIGHTS OF 7-11 FT. SEAS TO 8 FT
WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO
CENTRAL MEXICO ON WED NIGHT...AND AS FAR N AS THE CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EARLY THU...THEN SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT 
BY FRI AFTERNOON. THE SW SWELL MAY CAUSE HAZARDOUS BREAKING SURF 
CONDITIONS ALONG EXPOSED REEFS AND COASTS. NW WINDS CURRENTLY AT 
10-15 KT ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL 
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO LATE THU 
NIGHT.       
 
$$
CHRISTENSEN