000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050341
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC WED JUN 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ALONG 08.5N ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN 
FROM COLOMBIA TO PANAMA...THEN TURNS NW ACROSS INTERIOR COSTA 
RICA AND LOSES IDENTITY OVER CENTRAL NICARAGUA. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS EVIDENT AGAIN IN THE EASTERN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT
15N93W...AND EXTENDS SW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED 1008 MB LOW
PRESSURE AT 12N100W TO 12N108W TO 08N118W TO 09N126W WHERE 
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS NW TO 11N130W...THEN TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N82W TO 10N87W...WITHIN 
75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N90W TO 07N100W TO 
11N112W...WITHIN 90 NM OF 10N119W...AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N129W TO 09N134W. THE EMBEDDED LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 31N129W WITH 
A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 32N125W TO 27N130W. A SURFACE 
RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA S OF THE TROUGH FROM 30N140W TO
14N109W. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KT ARE NOTED W OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH WITH SEAS 7-9 FT IN N SWELL PROPAGATING S INTO THE
WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 128W-137W. THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
FILL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE AREA OF N SWELL SHIFTING
W ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 137W-140W ON THU.    

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 20N112W WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO A CREST AT 12N128W. WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE
S OF THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG AND S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. AN UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED
BETWEEN 133W-136W FROM 09N-22N ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION TO THE FEW CLUSTERS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
ALONG THE ITCZ.       

LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL IS PROPAGATING NE ACROSS THE
AREA RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS HEIGHTS OF 7-11 FT. SEAS TO 8 FT
WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO
CENTRAL MEXICO ON WED NIGHT...AND AS FAR N AS THE CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EARLY THU...THEN SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT
BY FRI AFTERNOON. NW WINDS CURRENTLY AT 10-15 KT ALONG THE 
WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO LATE THU NIGHT.       
 
$$
NELSON