000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042147
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC TUE JUN 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ALONG 10N ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN 
FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA THEN LOSES IDENTITY. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS EVIDENT AGAIN IN THE EASTERN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT
15N93W...AND EXTENDS SW TO 11N98W...THEN TURNS W THROUGH AN 
EMBEDDED 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE AT 11N111W TO 09N124W WHERE 
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS W THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 11N130W...THEN SW
TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
05N77W TO 07N90W TO 12N110W...WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 12N101W...WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
10N116W TO 09N123W...AND ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 30 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.5N129W TO 10N134W. THE TWO WEAK 
EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 31.5N128W WITH 
A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 32N125W TO 27N130W. A SURFACE 
RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA S OF THE TROUGH FROM 29N140W TO
17N112W. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KT ARE NOTED W OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH WITH SEAS 7-9 FT IN N SWELL PROPAGATING S INTO THE
WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 125W-135W. THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
FILL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE AREA OF N SWELL SHIFTING
W ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 136W-140W ON THU.    

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 19N104W WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO A CREST AT 12N129W. WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE
S OF THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG AND S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. AN UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED
ALONG 134W FROM 09N-22N ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION TO THE FEW CLUSTERS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ALONG THE
ITCZ.       

LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL IS PROPAGATING NE ACROSS THE
AREA RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS HEIGHTS OF 7-11 FT. SEAS TO 8 FT
WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO
CENTRAL MEXICO ON WED NIGHT...AND AS FAR N AS THE CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EARLY THU...THEN SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT
ON FRI. NW WINDS CURRENTLY AT 10-15 KT ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE 
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO LATE THU.       
 
$$
NELSON