000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041534 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  ...CORRECTION TO SATELLITE TIME  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1605 UTC TUE JUN 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVERLAND FROM PANAMA TO NICARAGUA TO 
14N92W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 12N109W TO 09N120W TO 10N124W. ITCZ 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N124W TO 11N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 83W AND 
89W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 11N 
BETWEEN 91W AND 103W...FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 98W AND 103W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH E 
OF 79W...WITHIN 75 NM ALONG COAST OF COSTA RICA...AND WITHIN 150 
NM S OF ITCZ W OF 136W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 33N128W WITH 
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING STATIONARY N OF 28N NEAR 128W. A 1025 
MB HIGH NEAR 34N144W WELL TO THE WEST HAS BEEN GRADUALLY 
WEAKENING...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING WINDS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 
110W. WINDS WELL N OF THE AREA OFF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ARE STILL 
20 TO 30 KT...PRODUCING NORTHERLY SWELL PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD 
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THU...AS THE 
SURFACE TROUGH DRIFTS W. WAVE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE N TO NE 
SWELL WILL PERSIST N OF 25N W OF 130W THROUGH LATE WEEK.

FARTHER SOUTH...A STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH REACHES FROM 22N135W 
TO 11N132W. CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY DRY OVERALL W OF 130W...BUT 
ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF MODEST 
CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...AIDED IN PART BY 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. 

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT E OF 115W TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS 
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST FROM WESTERN PANAMA TO 
SOUTHERN MEXICO...SUPPORTED IN PART BY CONVERGENCE OF LIGHT TO 
MODERATE SW FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS 
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE 
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THE SUBSIDENT NE FLOW ALOFT ON THE 
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIMIT SUBSTANTIAL DEEP 
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO SOME EXTENT.

LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 11 FT IS PUSHING N OF 
THE EQUATOR AND WILL REACH THE COASTLINE FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN 
BAJA BY EARLY THU PRODUCING HAZARDOUS BREAKING SURF CONDITIONS 
ALONG EXPOSED REEFS AND COASTS.
 
$$ 
PAW/JS