000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040905
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC TUE JUN 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVERLAND FROM PANAMA TO NICARAGUA...THEN 
CONTINUES FROM 13N100W TO 09N120W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09120W 
TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 120 NM OF COAST OF WESTERN PANAMA...AND WITHIN 120 NM OFF 
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 137W.

...DISCUSSION... 
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE REMAINS CENTERED 
NEAR 34N124W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING STATIONARY OFF THE 
COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. 1023 MB NEAR 34N145W WELL TO THE 
WEST HAS BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING...RESULTING DIMINISHING WINDS 
ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W. WINDS WELL N OF THE AREA OFF CENTRAL 
CALIFORNIA ARE STILL 20 TO 30 KT...PRODUCING NORTHERLY SWELL 
PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. SHIP REPORTS 
OVER THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS INDICATED SEAS AS HIGH AS 12 FT WERE 
STILL MIGRATING INTO THE AREA PENETRATING AT LEAST AS FAR SOUTH 
AS 27N. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LITTLE 
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THU...AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DRIFTS 
W. WAVE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE N TO NE SWELL WILL PERSIST N 
OF 25N W OF 130W THROUGH LATE WEEK.

FARTHER SOUTH...A STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH REACHES FROM 22N135W 
TO 11N135W. CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY DRY OVERALL W OF 130W...BUT 
ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF MODEST 
CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...AIDED IN PART BY 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. 

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT E OF 110W TO SUPPORT LINES OF 
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OFF THE COASTLINE FROM WESTERN 
PANAMA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO...SUPPORTED IN PART BY CONVERGENCE OF 
LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. DESPITE THE 
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THE SUBSIDENT 
NE FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL 
INHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO SOME EXTENT.

LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 11 FT IS PUSHING N OF 
THE EQUATOR AND WILL REACH THE COASTLINE FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN 
BAJA BY EARLY THU PRODUCING HAZARDOUS BREAKING SURF CONDITIONS 
ALONG EXPOSED REEFS AND COASTS.
 
$$ 
CHRISTENSEN