000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040348
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC TUE JUN 4 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 14N92W TO 11N105W TO LOW TO 11N123W THEN ITCZ
TO 10N134W TO BEYOND 08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN
90 NM OF AXIS W OF 136W

...DISCUSSION...
WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AT 33N122W HAS TROUGH EXTEND SW 
TO 20N140W WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS COVERING REGION N OF 16N. REST
OF BASIN UNDER BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
ADVECTING ENORMOUS AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO E PAC E OF
118W.  MODERATE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ENHANCES MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION ALONG MONSOON TROUGH.  WEAK LOW PRES CENTER 1010 MB AT
11N114W PULLING AWAY FROM DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND INTO DRY AIR LIKELY
TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND DISSIPATE WITHIN 24-36 HRS. 
  
...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
SURFACE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES CENTER 1029 MB AT 34N146W CONTINUES
WEAKENING AS UPPER CYCLONE FORCES IT NE.  THIS ACTION CUTS OFF
STRONG N WIND OVER NORTHERN LATITUDES OF BASIN AND ALLOWS SEAS TO
FINALLY SUBSIDE.  BOTH MODELS ECMWF AND NWW3 SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN
UNDERSTATING SEAS BY 3-4 FT IN LAST 24 HRS...AS COMPARED TO SHIP
REPORTS IN AREA.  FORECAST BUMP SEAS BY A COUPLE OF FT.       

SURGE OF LONG PERIOD 10-13 FT SW SWELL ENTERED E PAC AND IS
PROPAGATING NE ACROSS BASIN THROUGHOUT WEEK.  COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO LIKELY TO FEEL ITS IMPACT BY END OF
WEEK...PRODUCING HAZARDOUS BREAKING SURF CONDITIONS ALONG EXPOSED
REEFS AND COASTS.
 
$$ 
WALLY BARNES