000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031525 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON JUN 3 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N96W TO 11N107W TO LOW PRES CENTER 1010 MB NEAR 12N114W TO 10N130W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 94W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S QUADRANT OF THE LOW NEAR 12N113W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 124W. ...DISCUSSION... SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N141W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE SURFACE TROUGH S OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BECOME CUT OFF. THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT W OF 120W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS...GLOBAL WAVE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT N OF 27N W OF 120W THROUGH MID WEEK. DIVERGENT FLOW ON THE SE EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS SUPPORTING AREAS OF MODERATE CONVECTION PULSING ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 124W. ASCAT PASS AT 0524 UTC SHOWED AN ORGANIZED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR 12N114W...BUT WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. A SURGE OF LONG PERIOD 10-13 FT SW SWELL GREATER THAN 8 FT IS BEGINNING TO SWEEP ACROSS EQUATOR W OF 120W. THE SWELL WILL REACH FROM 20N140W TO THE EQUATOR AT 100W BY LATE TUE...THEN PROPAGATE NE TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER IN THE WEEK...AND MAY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BREAKING SURF CONDITIONS ALONG EXPOSED REEFS AND COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. $$ MUNDELL