000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030801
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC MON JUN 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 14N102W TO 11N108W TO LOW PRES CENTER 1010 
MB NEAR 12N114W TO 10N120W THEN ITCZ TO 08N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 94W AND 
99W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM SE QUADRANT OF 
LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 12N114W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR 31N125W IS DIGGING SE INTO A TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO 30N125W TO 
22N140W. THIS IS REINFORCING A SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WILL BECOME CUT OFF THROUGH TODAY. THE 
PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS 
KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT W OF 120W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE 
GRADIENT IS SOMEWHAT TIGHTER W OF 120W...BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND 
SURFACE 1030 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED 26N140W. SHIP AND 
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE A BROAD SWATH OF MODERATE TO FRESH N 
TO NE WINDS BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE LOW N OF 20N W OF 120W. 
SHIP OBSERVATIONS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ALSO INDICATED 
SEAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN ALL WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE...LIKELY THE 
RESULT OF NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED BY PERSISTENT STRONG TO GALE 
FORCE N FLOW OFF COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. 

WHILE THE TREND FOR THE WINDS IS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER 
THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS...GLOBAL WAVE 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT N OF 
27N W OF 120W THROUGH MID WEEK. 

DIVERGENT FLOW ON THE SE EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION 
WITH TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS SUPPORTING 
AREAS OF MODERATE CONVECTION PULSING ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 125W.

SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS 
INDICATED A SWATH OF 15 TO 20 KT SW FLOW CONVERGING INTO THE 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 115W. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 
ARE STARTING TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC...AND THIS CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF 
CONVECTION IN THAT AREA.

A SURGE OF LONG PERIOD 10-13 FT SW SWELL GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL 
SWEEP ACROSS EQUATOR W OF 120W TODAY...REACHING FROM 20N140W TO 
THE EQUATOR AT 100W BY LATE TUE. THE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE NE TO 
THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER IN THE 
WEEK...AND MAY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF BREAKING CONDITIONS ALONG 
EXPOSED REEFS AND COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
 
$$ 
CHRISTENSEN