000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030603
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC MON JUN 3 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 14N102W TO 11N108W TO LOW PRES CENTER 1010 MB
AT 12N114W TO 10N120W THEN ITCZ TO 10N132W TO 08N140W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 103W TO
106W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS W OF 128W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WELL DEFINED CYCLONE AT
31N127W TO 30N129W TO BEYOND 23N140W.  VERY DRY AND STABLE MID
TO UPPER LEVEL AIR MAINTAIN BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATIFIED LOW 
LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER MOST OF BASIN N OF ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND
W OF 110W.  BROAD RIDGE OVER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC PROVIDES PLENTY
OF DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENING SURFACE TROUGH AND 1008 MB
LOW PRES NEAR YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO CENTRAL
AMERICA.  ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO E PAC BY 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND RIDGE USED BY MONSOON TROUGH TO PROMPT
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 102W-108W. 

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
BROAD HIGH PRES RIDGE 1032 MB REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MON THEN
DRIFT N AND WEAKEN ALLOWING PRESENT STRONG N-NE WINDS N OF 27N TO
DIMINISH BY TUE.  PRESENT 10-12 FT SEAS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE SW 
BUT SUBSIDE TO 9 FT BY LATE TUE. 

SURGE OF LONG PERIOD 10-13 FT SW SWELL SWEEP ACROSS EQUATOR W OF
98W BY TUE AND PROPAGATE NE TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER IN THE WEEK...AND MAY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
SURF BREAKING CONDITIONS ALONG EXPOSED REEFS AND COASTS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA.
 
$$ 
WALLY BARNES