000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022153
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC SUN JUN 2 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 13N103W TO 11N107W TO LOW PRES CENTER 1010 MB
AT 12N115W TO 10N121W THEN ITCZ TO 10N124W TO 08N138W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 102W TO 108W AND
WITHIN 120 NM W OF 122W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WELL DEFINED CYCLONE AT
32N128W TO 30N129W TO BEYOND 21N140W.  VERY DRY AND STABLE MID
TO UPPER LEVEL AIR MAINTAIN BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATIFIED LOW 
LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER MOST OF BASIN N OF ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND
W OF 110W.  BROAD RIDGE OVER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC PROVIDES PLENTY
OF DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT OVER REMNANTS OF BARBARA...NOW OVER BAY
OF CAMPECHE COAST,...AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO CENTRAL AMERICA.  ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO E PAC BY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
AROUND RIDGE USED BY MONSOON TROUGH TO PROMPT SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 102W-108W. 

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
BROAD HIGH PRES RIDGE 1032 MB REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MON THEN
DRIFT N AND WEAKEN ALLOWING PRESENT STRONG N-NE WINDS N OF 27N TO
DIMINISH BY TUE.  PRESENT 10-12 FT SEAS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE SW 
BUT SUBSIDE TO 8 FT BY LATE TUE. 

SURGE OF LONG PERIOD 10-13 FT SW SWELL SWEEP ACROSS EQUATOR W OF
98W BY TUE AND PROPAGATE NE TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER IN THE WEEK...AND MAY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
SURF BREAKING CONDITIONS ALONG EXPOSED REEFS AND COASTS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA.
 
$$ 
WALLY BARNES